A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
